The Great Energy Transition: Not If, But How Fast
The sceptics were wrong about the timeline. The future arrived faster than anyone predicted.
Energy transitions supposedly take decades. This one is happening in years. The world is witnessing an industrial transformation of unusual speed and scale. The question is no longer whether a global energy transition will occur, but how quickly it accelerates.
Renewables generated 32% of global electricity in 2024. Clean power, including nuclear, reached 40.9%. Fossil fuels dropped to 59.1%, down from 68% in 2007. Wind and solar output grew more between 2018 and 2023 than in the 17 years prior. In 2024, solar investment exceeded $500 billion, making it the single largest recipient of global energy funding.
For the first time, clean energy investment more than doubled fossil fuel spending ($2 trillion vs $1 trillion). Just six years ago, that ratio was 1:1. This is a textbook S-curve, where scale, cost decline, and market confidence feed exponential growth. The transition isn’t beginning – it’s compounding.
Australia demonstrates that rapid transformation is possible. Renewables have soared from 16% of national electricity in 2015 to 43% in 2025 – one of the fastest accelerations in history. Electricity emissions have fallen by 30% compared to 2005 – the equivalent of taking every car, truck, and plane off the road for a year.
Solar supplied a quarter of Australia’s electricity in late 2024. South Australia climbed from 1% renewable energy to 74% in just 16 years, transforming from complete fossil fuel dependence as late as 2002 to renewables alone powering the entire state for 99 days in 2024.
Australia’s 82% renewable target by 2030 now appears achievable. The country is positioning itself as a renewable energy superpower, leveraging vast solar resources and critical mineral deposits to supply a decarbonising Asia-Pacific.
The shift in transport has been equally dramatic. Electric vehicles jumped from 1% of global car sales a decade ago to 25% in 2025. In China, over 40% of all new cars sold in 2024 were electric – the highest share globally – with year-on-year growth of 25%. Globally, over 17 million EVs were sold in 2024 – growth exceeding total EV sales in 2020.
Major economies have announced phase-out dates for petrol cars (EU by 2035, California by 2035). The internal combustion engine’s century-long dominance is ending within this decade. Australia mirrors this pattern from a lower base, with EV sales reaching an estimated 9.5% in 2024.
Even the toughest industries to decarbonise are crossing critical thresholds. Swedish engineers produced the world’s first fossil-free steel in 2021 using hydrogen instead of coal. Europe’s first commercial-scale green steel plant begins operations in late 2025, targeting 5 million tonnes annually by 2030.
Aviation is following suit. Sustainable aviation fuels, once experimental, now power thousands of commercial flights. The EU mandates a 2% minimum blend from 2025, rising to 6% by 2030. Electric aircraft for short-haul routes will enter service before this decade’s end.
These remain pilot-scale relative to global output. Most steel still uses coal, most planes burn kerosene. But the strategic direction has shifted decisively. From electricity to transport to heavy industry, the pattern is consistent: exponential growth following breakthrough moments.
The developed world’s CO₂ output is in sustained decline, hitting 50-year lows. China’s emissions have peaked, dropping 1.6% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025. Yet the question remains whether this acceleration can match what climate science demands.
Current trajectories put the world on track for 2.4°C warming by 2100, far above Paris Agreement targets. A critical gap persists: 85% of clean energy investment flows to wealthy economies, while developing countries receive just 15%. Without broader access, global emissions will not fall fast enough, especially with ongoing rapid population growth in Africa.
Whatever the climate outcomes, the economic transformation has become self-sustaining. Investors pour trillions into clean energy while recognising stranded-asset risks in fossil fuels. Businesses increasingly choose clean options for economic rather than environmental reasons – a fundamental shift from virtue to value.
This shift is visible across corporate behaviour. Leading companies embed scenario planning into core strategies. Early clean technology investors continue capturing market share while competitors assess options. Supply chains diversify away from fossil fuel dependencies, even at higher upfront costs. Regulatory momentum accelerates globally as carbon pricing mechanisms expand and clean energy mandates multiply.
Every solar project, every EV, every tonne of clean steel adds momentum to a transition now driven by its own economic logic. The compounding effects visible in Australia, China, Europe, and beyond suggest the world remains in the early phase of exponential change. History shows that the greatest industrial transformations, once past critical mass, become unstoppable. The great energy transition is no longer a matter of if, but how fast.
Luke Heilbuth is CEO of sustainability advisory firm BWD Strategic, and a former Australian diplomat. Connect at luke.heilbuth@bwdstrategic.com